Cardiff Blues vs Leicester Tigers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cardiff Blues 43.7%draw 2.5%53.8% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 77.7%draw 2.5%19.8% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 33.0%draw 2.5%64.5% Leicester TigersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Leicester Tigers and 16 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 1 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cardiff Blues, negative favours Leicester Tigers.
Cardiff Blues 1573, Leicester Tigers 1840 — 267 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues0–0–2Leicester Tigers2 meetings, 2019 to 2020 · Leicester Tigers by 6.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-01-12 | Leicester Tigers 30–20 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2019-11-23 | Cardiff Blues 11–14 Leicester Tigers | European Challenge Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.