Cardiff Blues vs Leinster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cardiff Blues 38.0%draw 2.5%59.5% LeinsterLeinster 79.9%draw 2.5%17.6% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 27.9%draw 2.5%69.6% LeinsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Leinster and 15 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 2 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cardiff Blues, negative favours Leinster.
Cardiff Blues 1573, Leinster 1912 — 339 points, favouring Leinster
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues2–0–10Leinster12 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Leinster by 11.4 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Leinster by 12.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | Cardiff Blues 8–7 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2025-03-01 | Leinster 42–24 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2024-03-02 | Cardiff Blues 20–33 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2023-01-28 | Leinster 38–14 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Laya Arena |
| 2022-01-29 | Cardiff Blues 29–27 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 12. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.