Cardiff Blues vs Leinster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cardiff Blues 38.5%draw 2.5%59.0% LeinsterLeinster 85.3%draw 2.5%12.2% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 24.6%draw 2.5%72.9% LeinsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cardiff Blues v Leinster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 Leinster and 16 Cardiff Blues, half of them between 11 Leinster and 6 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 2 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 66 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-17 on a tight afternoon and 29-27 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cardiff Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cardiff Blues, a bar to the left helps Leinster.
Cardiff Blues 1645, Leinster 1915 — 270 points, favouring Leinster
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues2–0–12Leinster14 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Leinster by 11.6 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Leinster by 14.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Leinster 29–5 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Laya Arena |
| 2026-02-27 | Cardiff Blues 8–7 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2025-03-01 | Leinster 42–24 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Aviva Stadium |
| 2024-03-02 | Cardiff Blues 20–33 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2023-01-28 | Leinster 38–14 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Laya Arena |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 14. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.