Cardiff Blues vs Lions
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cardiff Blues 58.4%draw 2.5%39.1% LionsLions 65.0%draw 2.5%32.5% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 45.1%draw 2.5%52.4% LionsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cardiff Blues v Lions, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Lions and 23 Cardiff Blues, half of them between 5 Lions and 12 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 2 Cardiff Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 66 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-17 on a tight afternoon and 29-27 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cardiff Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cardiff Blues, a bar to the left helps Lions.
Cardiff Blues 1645, Lions 1664 — 19 points, favouring Lions
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues2–0–3Lions5 meetings, 2022 to 2025 · Lions by 7.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-27 | Cardiff Blues 33–20 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2025-03-21 | Cardiff Blues 20–17 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2024-05-11 | Lions 34–13 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2022-09-30 | Cardiff Blues 18–31 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2022-03-13 | Lions 37–20 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.