Cardiff Blues vs Lions
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cardiff Blues 48.3%draw 2.5%49.2% LionsLions 70.7%draw 2.5%26.8% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 37.4%draw 2.5%60.1% LionsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Lions and 14 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-19 on a tight afternoon and 29-29 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cardiff Blues, negative favours Lions.
Cardiff Blues 1573, Lions 1678 — 105 points, favouring Lions
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues2–0–2Lions4 meetings, 2022 to 2025 · Lions by 5.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-27 | Cardiff Blues 33–20 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2025-03-21 | Cardiff Blues 20–17 Lions | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2024-05-11 | Lions 34–13 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
| 2022-03-13 | Lions 37–20 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Ellis Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.