Cardiff Blues vs Lyon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cardiff Blues 72.1%draw 2.5%25.4% LyonLyon 48.5%draw 2.5%49.0% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 60.8%draw 2.5%36.7% LyonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Lyon and 29 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 7 Cardiff Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-26 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cardiff Blues, negative favours Lyon.
Cardiff Blues 1573, Lyon 1429 — 145 points, favouring Cardiff Blues
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues4–0–1Lyon5 meetings, 2017 to 2024 · Cardiff Blues by 6.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-07 | Lyon 37–26 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2019-01-19 | Cardiff Blues 33–14 Lyon | European Champions Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2018-10-14 | Lyon 21–30 Cardiff Blues | European Champions Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2018-01-20 | Lyon 18–21 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2017-10-13 | Cardiff Blues 29–19 Lyon | European Challenge Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.