Cardiff Blues vs Lyon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cardiff Blues 69.9%draw 2.5%27.6% LyonLyon 53.7%draw 2.5%43.8% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 55.0%draw 2.5%42.5% LyonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cardiff Blues v Lyon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Lyon and 25 Cardiff Blues, half of them between 2 Lyon and 14 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 6 Cardiff Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-17 on a tight afternoon and 34-28 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cardiff Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cardiff Blues, a bar to the left helps Lyon.
Cardiff Blues 1645, Lyon 1487 — 158 points, favouring Cardiff Blues
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues4–0–1Lyon5 meetings, 2017 to 2024 · Cardiff Blues by 6.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-07 | Lyon 37–26 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2019-01-19 | Cardiff Blues 33–14 Lyon | European Champions Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2018-10-14 | Lyon 21–30 Cardiff Blues | European Champions Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2018-01-20 | Lyon 18–21 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2017-10-13 | Cardiff Blues 29–19 Lyon | European Challenge Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.