Cardiff Blues vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cardiff Blues 39.7%draw 2.5%57.8% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 84.7%draw 2.5%12.8% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 25.5%draw 2.5%72.0% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cardiff Blues v Montpellier Herault, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Montpellier Herault and 16 Cardiff Blues, half of them between 10 Montpellier Herault and 6 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 2 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-31 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cardiff Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cardiff Blues, a bar to the left helps Montpellier Herault.
Cardiff Blues 1645, Montpellier Herault 1972 — 327 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues1–0–1Montpellier Herault2 meetings, 2015 to 2015 · Cardiff Blues by 4.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-12-17 | Montpellier Herault 23–22 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | Septeo Stadium |
| 2015-12-11 | Cardiff Blues 37–27 Montpellier Herault | European Challenge Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.