Cardiff Blues vs Munster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cardiff Blues 48.8%draw 2.5%48.7% MunsterMunster 65.9%draw 2.5%31.6% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 40.1%draw 2.5%57.4% MunsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Munster and 20 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-30 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cardiff Blues, negative favours Munster.
Cardiff Blues 1573, Munster 1670 — 97 points, favouring Munster
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues6–0–10Munster16 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Munster by 4.1 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Munster by 4.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-04 | Munster 23–20 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2025-04-25 | Cardiff Blues 26–21 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2024-03-30 | Munster 20–15 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2022-09-17 | Cardiff Blues 20–13 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2022-04-29 | Munster 42–21 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Virgin Media Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 16. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.