Cardiff Blues vs Pau
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cardiff Blues 60.1%draw 2.5%37.4% PauPau 77.5%draw 2.5%20.0% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 40.3%draw 2.5%57.2% PauEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cardiff Blues v Pau, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Pau and 23 Cardiff Blues, half of them between 5 Pau and 12 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 3 Cardiff Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cardiff Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cardiff Blues, a bar to the left helps Pau.
Cardiff Blues 1645, Pau 1818 — 173 points, favouring Pau
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues4–0–1Pau5 meetings, 2016 to 2019 · Cardiff Blues by 9.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-12-14 | Pau 34–29 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | Stade du Hameau |
| 2019-12-07 | Cardiff Blues 54–22 Pau | European Challenge Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2018-04-21 | Cardiff Blues 16–10 Pau | European Challenge Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2017-01-14 | Pau 21–22 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | Stade du Hameau |
| 2016-10-21 | Cardiff Blues 27–12 Pau | European Challenge Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.