Cardiff Blues vs Pau
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cardiff Blues 62.6%draw 2.5%34.9% PauPau 67.3%draw 2.5%30.2% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 46.9%draw 2.5%50.6% PauEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Pau and 26 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 4 Cardiff Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cardiff Blues, negative favours Pau.
Cardiff Blues 1573, Pau 1640 — 67 points, favouring Pau
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues4–0–1Pau5 meetings, 2016 to 2019 · Cardiff Blues by 9.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-12-14 | Pau 34–29 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | Stade du Hameau |
| 2019-12-07 | Cardiff Blues 54–22 Pau | European Challenge Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2018-04-21 | Cardiff Blues 16–10 Pau | European Challenge Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2017-01-14 | Pau 21–22 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | Stade du Hameau |
| 2016-10-21 | Cardiff Blues 27–12 Pau | European Challenge Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.