Cardiff Blues vs Perpignan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cardiff Blues 74.4%draw 2.5%23.1% PerpignanCardiff Blues 64.1%draw 2.5%33.4% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 6 Perpignan and 31 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 9 Cardiff Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cardiff Blues, negative favours Perpignan.
Cardiff Blues 1573, Perpignan 1346 — 228 points, favouring Cardiff Blues
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues0–0–1Perpignan1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Perpignan by 3.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Perpignan 23–20 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | Stade Aime Giral |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.