Cardiff Blues vs Perpignan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cardiff Blues 80.9%draw 2.5%16.6% PerpignanPerpignan 51.7%draw 2.5%45.8% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 64.0%draw 2.5%33.5% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cardiff Blues v Perpignan, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Perpignan and 31 Cardiff Blues, half of them between 2 Cardiff Blues and 20 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 9 Cardiff Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cardiff Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cardiff Blues, a bar to the left helps Perpignan.
Cardiff Blues 1645, Perpignan 1424 — 222 points, favouring Cardiff Blues
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues0–0–1Perpignan1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Perpignan by 3.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Perpignan 23–20 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | Stade Aime Giral |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.