Cardiff Blues vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cardiff Blues 61.6%draw 2.5%35.9% Racing 92Racing 92 66.0%draw 2.5%31.5% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 46.6%draw 2.5%50.9% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cardiff Blues v Racing 92, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Racing 92 and 23 Cardiff Blues, half of them between 5 Racing 92 and 13 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 3 Cardiff Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cardiff Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cardiff Blues, a bar to the left helps Racing 92.
Cardiff Blues 1645, Racing 92 1632 — 14 points, favouring Cardiff Blues
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues1–0–1Racing 922 meetings, 2024 to 2026 · Racing 92 by 1.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | Cardiff Blues 32–13 Racing 92 | European Challenge Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2024-01-20 | Racing 92 48–26 Cardiff Blues | European Champions Cup | Paris La Defense Arena |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.