Cardiff Blues vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cardiff Blues 54.1%draw 2.5%43.4% Racing 92Racing 92 70.6%draw 2.5%26.9% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 40.3%draw 2.5%57.2% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Racing 92 and 23 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 1 Cardiff Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cardiff Blues, negative favours Racing 92.
Cardiff Blues 1573, Racing 92 1707 — 134 points, favouring Racing 92
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues1–0–1Racing 922 meetings, 2024 to 2026 · Racing 92 by 1.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | Cardiff Blues 32–13 Racing 92 | European Challenge Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2024-01-20 | Racing 92 48–26 Cardiff Blues | European Champions Cup | Paris La Defense Arena |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.