Cardiff Blues vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cardiff Blues 68.4%draw 2.5%29.1% Sale SharksSale Sharks 62.0%draw 2.5%35.5% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 53.4%draw 2.5%44.1% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cardiff Blues v Sale Sharks, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Sale Sharks and 23 Cardiff Blues, half of them between 2 Sale Sharks and 13 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 5 Cardiff Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cardiff Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cardiff Blues, a bar to the left helps Sale Sharks.
Cardiff Blues 1645, Sale Sharks 1504 — 141 points, favouring Cardiff Blues
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues2–0–1Sale Sharks3 meetings, 2017 to 2023 · Sale Sharks by 5.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-01 | Cardiff Blues 28–27 Sale Sharks | European Challenge Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2017-12-17 | Cardiff Blues 14–6 Sale Sharks | European Challenge Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2017-12-09 | Sale Sharks 24–0 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.