Cardiff Blues vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cardiff Blues 61.9%draw 2.5%35.6% Sale SharksSale Sharks 59.2%draw 2.5%38.3% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 50.1%draw 2.5%47.4% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Sale Sharks and 24 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 3 Cardiff Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cardiff Blues, negative favours Sale Sharks.
Cardiff Blues 1573, Sale Sharks 1558 — 15 points, favouring Cardiff Blues
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues2–0–1Sale Sharks3 meetings, 2017 to 2023 · Sale Sharks by 5.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-01 | Cardiff Blues 28–27 Sale Sharks | European Challenge Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2017-12-17 | Cardiff Blues 14–6 Sale Sharks | European Challenge Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2017-12-09 | Sale Sharks 24–0 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | CorpAcq Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.