Cardiff Blues vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cardiff Blues 47.3%draw 2.5%50.2% SaracensSaracens 78.0%draw 2.5%19.5% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 35.0%draw 2.5%62.5% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Saracens and 17 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 1 Saracens.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cardiff Blues, negative favours Saracens.
Cardiff Blues 1573, Saracens 1802 — 229 points, favouring Saracens
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues0–0–3Saracens3 meetings, 2018 to 2022 · Saracens by 15.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-17 | Saracens 40–33 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | StoneX Stadium |
| 2018-12-15 | Cardiff Blues 14–26 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2018-12-09 | Saracens 51–25 Cardiff Blues | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.