Cardiff Blues vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cardiff Blues 44.9%draw 2.5%52.6% SaracensSaracens 83.3%draw 2.5%14.2% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 29.0%draw 2.5%68.5% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cardiff Blues v Saracens, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Saracens and 16 Cardiff Blues, half of them between 9 Saracens and 7 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 1 Saracens.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 32-31 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cardiff Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cardiff Blues, a bar to the left helps Saracens.
Cardiff Blues 1645, Saracens 1861 — 215 points, favouring Saracens
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues0–0–3Saracens3 meetings, 2018 to 2022 · Saracens by 15.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-17 | Saracens 40–33 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | StoneX Stadium |
| 2018-12-15 | Cardiff Blues 14–26 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2018-12-09 | Saracens 51–25 Cardiff Blues | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.