Cardiff Blues vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cardiff Blues 79.8%draw 2.5%17.7% ScarletsScarlets 43.5%draw 2.5%54.0% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 69.8%draw 2.5%27.7% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cardiff Blues v Scarlets, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Scarlets and 30 Cardiff Blues, half of them between 1 Cardiff Blues and 19 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 8 Cardiff Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-15 on a tight afternoon and 33-25 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cardiff Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cardiff Blues, a bar to the left helps Scarlets.
Cardiff Blues 1645, Scarlets 1273 — 372 points, favouring Cardiff Blues
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues10–0–14Scarlets24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Scarlets by 1.8 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Scarlets by 3.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Scarlets 15–21 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2026-04-18 | Scarlets 24–28 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2025-12-19 | Cardiff Blues 17–21 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2024-10-12 | Cardiff Blues 19–25 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2024-09-28 | Scarlets 15–24 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.