Cardiff Blues vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cardiff Blues 72.7%draw 2.5%24.8% ScarletsScarlets 46.3%draw 2.5%51.2% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 62.3%draw 2.5%35.2% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Scarlets and 27 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 7 Cardiff Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cardiff Blues, negative favours Scarlets.
Cardiff Blues 1573, Scarlets 1334 — 239 points, favouring Cardiff Blues
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues9–0–13Scarlets22 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Scarlets by 2.1 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Scarlets by 5.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Scarlets 24–28 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2025-12-19 | Cardiff Blues 17–21 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2024-10-12 | Cardiff Blues 19–25 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2024-09-28 | Scarlets 15–24 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2023-12-02 | Cardiff Blues 23–29 Scarlets | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.