Cardiff Blues vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cardiff Blues host Sharks on Friday 23 October at Cardiff Arms Park, Cardiff, so Cardiff Blues are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Cardiff Blues 56.9%draw 2.5%40.6% SharksSharks 77.4%draw 2.5%20.1% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 38.1%draw 2.5%59.4% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cardiff Blues v Sharks, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Sharks and 21 Cardiff Blues, half of them between 6 Sharks and 11 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 2 Cardiff Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 66 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-17 on a tight afternoon and 29-27 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cardiff Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cardiff Blues, a bar to the left helps Sharks.
Cardiff Blues 1645, Sharks 1746 — 101 points, favouring Sharks
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues3–0–2Sharks5 meetings, 2021 to 2026 · Cardiff Blues by 7.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | Sharks 21–15 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2025-01-25 | Cardiff Blues 22–42 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2024-05-18 | Sharks 14–36 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2022-11-27 | Sharks 0–35 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2021-10-16 | Cardiff Blues 23–17 Sharks | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.