Cardiff Blues vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cardiff Blues 53.7%draw 2.5%43.8% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 79.1%draw 2.5%18.4% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 35.8%draw 2.5%61.7% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cardiff Blues v Stade Francais Paris, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Stade Francais Paris and 20 Cardiff Blues, half of them between 6 Stade Francais Paris and 10 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 1 Cardiff Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cardiff Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cardiff Blues, a bar to the left helps Stade Francais Paris.
Cardiff Blues 1645, Stade Francais Paris 1731 — 86 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues0–0–1Stade Francais Paris1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Stade Francais Paris by 21.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | Stade Francais Paris 38–17 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.