Cardiff Blues vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cardiff Blues 43.1%draw 2.5%54.4% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 75.4%draw 2.5%22.1% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 32.3%draw 2.5%65.2% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Stade Francais Paris and 16 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 1 Stade Francais Paris.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cardiff Blues, negative favours Stade Francais Paris.
Cardiff Blues 1573, Stade Francais Paris 1775 — 202 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues1–0–1Stade Francais Paris2 meetings, 2020 to 2025 · Cardiff Blues by 3.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | Stade Francais Paris 38–17 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2020-12-20 | Cardiff Blues 28–0 Stade Francais Paris | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.