Cardiff Blues vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cardiff Blues 41.8%draw 2.5%55.7% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 79.2%draw 2.5%18.3% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 30.8%draw 2.5%66.7% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Stade Toulousain and 15 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 2 Stade Toulousain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cardiff Blues, negative favours Stade Toulousain.
Cardiff Blues 1573, Stade Toulousain 1863 — 290 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues2–0–2Stade Toulousain4 meetings, 2017 to 2023 · Stade Toulousain by 17.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-09 | Stade Toulousain 52–7 Cardiff Blues | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2021-12-11 | Cardiff Blues 7–39 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2018-01-14 | Cardiff Blues 18–13 Stade Toulousain | European Challenge Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2017-10-20 | Stade Toulousain 15–17 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.