Cardiff Blues vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cardiff Blues 38.6%draw 2.5%58.9% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 84.6%draw 2.5%12.9% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 24.9%draw 2.5%72.6% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cardiff Blues v Stade Toulousain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 23 Stade Toulousain and 14 Cardiff Blues, half of them between 12 Stade Toulousain and 5 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 3 Stade Toulousain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-30 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cardiff Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cardiff Blues, a bar to the left helps Stade Toulousain.
Cardiff Blues 1645, Stade Toulousain 1992 — 347 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues2–0–2Stade Toulousain4 meetings, 2017 to 2023 · Stade Toulousain by 17.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-09 | Stade Toulousain 52–7 Cardiff Blues | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2021-12-11 | Cardiff Blues 7–39 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2018-01-14 | Cardiff Blues 18–13 Stade Toulousain | European Challenge Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2017-10-20 | Stade Toulousain 15–17 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.