Cardiff Blues vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cardiff Blues 49.3%draw 2.5%48.2% StormersStormers 73.6%draw 2.5%23.9% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 36.4%draw 2.5%61.1% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Stormers and 21 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-30 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cardiff Blues, negative favours Stormers.
Cardiff Blues 1573, Stormers 1716 — 142 points, favouring Stormers
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues3–0–3Stormers6 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Stormers by 8.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Stormers 44–21 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2026-05-15 | Cardiff Blues 22–16 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2025-05-16 | Stormers 34–24 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2023-11-24 | Cardiff Blues 31–24 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2022-10-22 | Cardiff Blues 30–24 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.