Cardiff Blues vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cardiff Blues 44.3%draw 2.5%53.2% StormersStormers 83.7%draw 2.5%13.8% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 28.4%draw 2.5%69.1% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cardiff Blues v Stormers, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Stormers and 16 Cardiff Blues, half of them between 9 Stormers and 7 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 1 Stormers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 28 and 66 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 18-17 on a tight afternoon and 28-27 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cardiff Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cardiff Blues, a bar to the left helps Stormers.
Cardiff Blues 1645, Stormers 1845 — 200 points, favouring Stormers
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues3–0–3Stormers6 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Stormers by 8.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Stormers 44–21 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2026-05-15 | Cardiff Blues 22–16 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2025-05-16 | Stormers 34–24 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | DHL Stadium |
| 2023-11-24 | Cardiff Blues 31–24 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2022-10-22 | Cardiff Blues 30–24 Stormers | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.