Cardiff Blues vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cardiff Blues 88.9%draw 2.5%8.6% ZebreZebre 29.1%draw 2.5%68.4% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 78.9%draw 2.5%18.6% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cardiff Blues v Zebre, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 37 Cardiff Blues, half of them between 4 Cardiff Blues and 25 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 13 Cardiff Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-13 on a tight afternoon and 36-23 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cardiff Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cardiff Blues, a bar to the left helps Zebre.
Cardiff Blues 1645, Zebre 1071 — 575 points, favouring Cardiff Blues
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues13–1–1Zebre15 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Cardiff Blues by 14.8 on average
Last 10: 8–1–1 · Cardiff Blues by 11.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Cardiff Blues 40–27 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2025-11-29 | Zebre 14–29 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2024-09-20 | Cardiff Blues 22–17 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2023-11-17 | Zebre 22–22 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2023-03-24 | Zebre 30–34 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 15. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.