Cardiff Blues vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cardiff Blues 72.8%draw 2.5%24.7% ZebreZebre 39.9%draw 2.5%57.6% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 65.5%draw 2.5%32.0% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cardiff Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Zebre and 32 Cardiff Blues, with the middle run at 8 Cardiff Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-16 on a tight afternoon and 35-27 on an open one.
Why Cardiff Blues are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cardiff Blues, negative favours Zebre.
Cardiff Blues 1573, Zebre 1309 — 265 points, favouring Cardiff Blues
Cardiff Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cardiff Blues12–1–1Zebre14 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Cardiff Blues by 14.9 on average
Last 10: 8–1–1 · Cardiff Blues by 12.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-29 | Zebre 14–29 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2024-09-20 | Cardiff Blues 22–17 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2023-11-17 | Zebre 22–22 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2023-03-24 | Zebre 30–34 Cardiff Blues | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2022-05-06 | Cardiff Blues 42–14 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Cardiff Arms Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 14. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.