Castres Olympique vs Clermont Auvergne
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Castres Olympique 46.1%draw 2.5%51.4% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 70.8%draw 2.5%26.7% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 35.4%draw 2.5%62.1% Clermont AuvergneEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Clermont Auvergne and 15 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 1 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Castres Olympique, negative favours Clermont Auvergne.
Castres Olympique 1485, Clermont Auvergne 1729 — 244 points, favouring Clermont Auvergne
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique8–0–10Clermont Auvergne18 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Clermont Auvergne by 8.4 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Clermont Auvergne by 12.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-25 | Clermont Auvergne 63–14 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2025-05-24 | Castres Olympique 34–29 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2024-05-18 | Clermont Auvergne 36–20 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2024-01-27 | Castres Olympique 20–23 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2023-02-04 | Clermont Auvergne 41–26 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 18. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.