Castres Olympique vs Clermont Auvergne
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Castres Olympique 72.4%draw 2.5%25.1% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 73.1%draw 2.5%24.4% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 48.3%draw 2.5%49.2% Clermont AuvergneEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Castres Olympique v Clermont Auvergne, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Clermont Auvergne and 23 Castres Olympique, half of them between 1 Clermont Auvergne and 14 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 5 Castres Olympique.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Castres Olympique winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Castres Olympique, a bar to the left helps Clermont Auvergne.
Castres Olympique 1456, Clermont Auvergne 1466 — 10 points, favouring Clermont Auvergne
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique10–0–12Clermont Auvergne22 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Clermont Auvergne by 9.1 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Clermont Auvergne by 11.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Clermont Auvergne 20–6 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2026-01-31 | Castres Olympique 28–23 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2025-10-25 | Clermont Auvergne 63–14 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2025-05-24 | Castres Olympique 34–29 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2024-11-30 | Clermont Auvergne 54–10 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.