Castres Olympique vs Dragons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Castres Olympique 70.9%draw 2.5%26.6% DragonsDragons 56.5%draw 2.5%41.0% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 56.1%draw 2.5%41.4% DragonsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Dragons and 30 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 7 Castres Olympique.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Castres Olympique, negative favours Dragons.
Castres Olympique 1485, Dragons 1369 — 115 points, favouring Castres Olympique
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique2–0–2Dragons4 meetings, 2015 to 2020 · Castres Olympique by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-01-11 | Castres Olympique 42–14 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2019-11-16 | Dragons 31–17 Castres Olympique | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
| 2016-01-15 | Dragons 31–18 Castres Olympique | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
| 2015-11-21 | Castres Olympique 32–29 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.