Castres Olympique vs Dragons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Castres Olympique 68.1%draw 2.5%29.4% DragonsDragons 61.3%draw 2.5%36.2% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 52.2%draw 2.5%45.3% DragonsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Castres Olympique v Dragons, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Dragons and 28 Castres Olympique, half of them between 2 Dragons and 16 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 6 Castres Olympique.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-17 on a tight afternoon and 34-28 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Castres Olympique winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Castres Olympique, a bar to the left helps Dragons.
Castres Olympique 1456, Dragons 1330 — 127 points, favouring Castres Olympique
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique2–0–2Dragons4 meetings, 2015 to 2020 · Castres Olympique by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-01-11 | Castres Olympique 42–14 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2019-11-16 | Dragons 31–17 Castres Olympique | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
| 2016-01-15 | Dragons 31–18 Castres Olympique | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
| 2015-11-21 | Castres Olympique 32–29 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.