Castres Olympique vs Edinburgh
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Castres Olympique 62.9%draw 2.5%34.6% EdinburghEdinburgh 72.2%draw 2.5%25.3% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 43.9%draw 2.5%53.6% EdinburghEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Castres Olympique v Edinburgh, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Edinburgh and 22 Castres Olympique, half of them between 5 Edinburgh and 13 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 3 Castres Olympique.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Castres Olympique winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Castres Olympique, a bar to the left helps Edinburgh.
Castres Olympique 1456, Edinburgh 1528 — 72 points, favouring Edinburgh
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique1–0–3Edinburgh4 meetings, 2022 to 2025 · Edinburgh by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | Castres Olympique 33–0 Edinburgh | European Champions Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2023-12-16 | Edinburgh 34–21 Castres Olympique | European Challenge Cup | Hive Stadium |
| 2023-01-15 | Castres Olympique 21–34 Edinburgh | European Champions Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2022-12-17 | Edinburgh 31–20 Castres Olympique | European Champions Cup | Hive Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.