Castres Olympique vs Exeter Chiefs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Castres Olympique 47.8%draw 2.5%49.7% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 76.6%draw 2.5%20.9% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 33.7%draw 2.5%63.8% Exeter ChiefsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Castres Olympique v Exeter Chiefs, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Exeter Chiefs and 16 Castres Olympique, half of them between 8 Exeter Chiefs and 7 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 1 Exeter Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 33-32 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Castres Olympique winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Castres Olympique, a bar to the left helps Exeter Chiefs.
Castres Olympique 1456, Exeter Chiefs 1716 — 260 points, favouring Exeter Chiefs
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Exeter Chiefs are under 50% and still the likelier winner: Castres Olympique are on 47.8%, and a draw takes the other 2.5%.
Head to head
Castres Olympique1–0–3Exeter Chiefs4 meetings, 2018 to 2023 · Exeter Chiefs by 17.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-21 | Exeter Chiefs 40–3 Castres Olympique | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
| 2022-12-10 | Castres Olympique 12–27 Exeter Chiefs | European Champions Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2019-01-13 | Exeter Chiefs 34–12 Castres Olympique | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
| 2018-10-20 | Castres Olympique 29–25 Exeter Chiefs | European Champions Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.