Castres Olympique vs Exeter Chiefs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Castres Olympique 43.6%draw 2.5%53.9% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 72.7%draw 2.5%24.8% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 33.1%draw 2.5%64.4% Exeter ChiefsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Exeter Chiefs and 15 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 1 Exeter Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Castres Olympique, negative favours Exeter Chiefs.
Castres Olympique 1485, Exeter Chiefs 1754 — 270 points, favouring Exeter Chiefs
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique1–0–3Exeter Chiefs4 meetings, 2018 to 2023 · Exeter Chiefs by 17.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-21 | Exeter Chiefs 40–3 Castres Olympique | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
| 2022-12-10 | Castres Olympique 12–27 Exeter Chiefs | European Champions Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2019-01-13 | Exeter Chiefs 34–12 Castres Olympique | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
| 2018-10-20 | Castres Olympique 29–25 Exeter Chiefs | European Champions Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.