Castres Olympique vs Gloucester Rugby
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Castres Olympique 40.6%draw 2.5%56.9% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 78.9%draw 2.5%18.6% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 29.0%draw 2.5%68.5% Gloucester RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Castres Olympique v Gloucester Rugby, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Gloucester Rugby and 16 Castres Olympique, half of them between 10 Gloucester Rugby and 6 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 2 Gloucester Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-31 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Castres Olympique winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Castres Olympique, a bar to the left helps Gloucester Rugby.
Castres Olympique 1456, Gloucester Rugby 1684 — 228 points, favouring Gloucester Rugby
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique1–0–4Gloucester Rugby5 meetings, 2018 to 2025 · Gloucester Rugby by 11.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | Gloucester Rugby 34–14 Castres Olympique | European Champions Cup | Kingsholm |
| 2024-04-05 | Gloucester Rugby 30–25 Castres Olympique | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
| 2024-01-19 | Gloucester Rugby 35–5 Castres Olympique | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
| 2019-01-19 | Castres Olympique 24–22 Gloucester Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2018-10-14 | Gloucester Rugby 19–14 Castres Olympique | European Champions Cup | Kingsholm |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.