Castres Olympique vs Gloucester Rugby
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Castres Olympique 55.5%draw 2.5%42.0% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 69.7%draw 2.5%27.8% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 41.6%draw 2.5%55.9% Gloucester RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Gloucester Rugby and 21 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 2 Castres Olympique.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Castres Olympique, negative favours Gloucester Rugby.
Castres Olympique 1485, Gloucester Rugby 1520 — 35 points, favouring Gloucester Rugby
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique1–0–4Gloucester Rugby5 meetings, 2018 to 2025 · Gloucester Rugby by 11.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | Gloucester Rugby 34–14 Castres Olympique | European Champions Cup | Kingsholm |
| 2024-04-05 | Gloucester Rugby 30–25 Castres Olympique | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
| 2024-01-19 | Gloucester Rugby 35–5 Castres Olympique | European Challenge Cup | Kingsholm |
| 2019-01-19 | Castres Olympique 24–22 Gloucester Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2018-10-14 | Gloucester Rugby 19–14 Castres Olympique | European Champions Cup | Kingsholm |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.