Castres Olympique vs Harlequins
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Castres Olympique 60.9%draw 2.5%36.6% HarlequinsHarlequins 72.4%draw 2.5%25.1% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 42.7%draw 2.5%54.8% HarlequinsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Castres Olympique v Harlequins, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Harlequins and 20 Castres Olympique, half of them between 5 Harlequins and 11 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 3 Castres Olympique.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Castres Olympique winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Castres Olympique, a bar to the left helps Harlequins.
Castres Olympique 1456, Harlequins 1542 — 86 points, favouring Harlequins
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique0–0–3Harlequins3 meetings, 2015 to 2022 · Harlequins by 11.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-21 | Harlequins 36–33 Castres Olympique | European Champions Cup | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2021-12-12 | Castres Olympique 18–20 Harlequins | European Champions Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2015-01-24 | Castres Olympique 19–47 Harlequins | European Champions Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.