Castres Olympique vs La Rochelle
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Castres Olympique 51.5%draw 2.5%46.0% La RochelleLa Rochelle 85.3%draw 2.5%12.2% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 27.9%draw 2.5%69.6% La RochelleEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Castres Olympique v La Rochelle, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 La Rochelle and 17 Castres Olympique, half of them between 8 La Rochelle and 8 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-31 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Castres Olympique winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Castres Olympique, a bar to the left helps La Rochelle.
Castres Olympique 1456, La Rochelle 1820 — 364 points, favouring La Rochelle
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique11–1–10La Rochelle22 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · La Rochelle by 4.0 on average
Last 10: 5–1–4 · La Rochelle by 7.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Castres Olympique 26–31 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2025-11-22 | La Rochelle 17–19 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2025-03-22 | La Rochelle 12–12 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2024-11-23 | Castres Olympique 28–24 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2024-04-20 | Castres Olympique 25–24 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.