Castres Olympique vs Leicester Tigers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Castres Olympique 44.3%draw 2.5%53.2% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 79.5%draw 2.5%18.0% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 29.2%draw 2.5%68.3% Leicester TigersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Castres Olympique v Leicester Tigers, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Leicester Tigers and 16 Castres Olympique, half of them between 9 Leicester Tigers and 7 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 1 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 32-31 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Castres Olympique winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Castres Olympique, a bar to the left helps Leicester Tigers.
Castres Olympique 1456, Leicester Tigers 1800 — 344 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique1–0–1Leicester Tigers2 meetings, 2017 to 2018 · Castres Olympique by 7.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-01-14 | Castres Olympique 39–0 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2017-10-21 | Leicester Tigers 54–29 Castres Olympique | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.