Castres Olympique vs Leicester Tigers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Castres Olympique 36.4%draw 2.5%61.1% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 77.0%draw 2.5%20.5% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 27.3%draw 2.5%70.2% Leicester TigersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Leicester Tigers and 12 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 2 Leicester Tigers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Castres Olympique, negative favours Leicester Tigers.
Castres Olympique 1485, Leicester Tigers 1840 — 355 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique1–0–1Leicester Tigers2 meetings, 2017 to 2018 · Castres Olympique by 7.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-01-14 | Castres Olympique 39–0 Leicester Tigers | European Champions Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2017-10-21 | Leicester Tigers 54–29 Castres Olympique | European Champions Cup | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.