Castres Olympique vs Leinster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Castres Olympique 33.3%draw 2.5%64.2% LeinsterLeinster 86.0%draw 2.5%11.5% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 21.6%draw 2.5%75.9% LeinsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Castres Olympique v Leinster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 26 Leinster and 12 Castres Olympique, half of them between 14 Leinster and 3 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 4 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Castres Olympique winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Castres Olympique, a bar to the left helps Leinster.
Castres Olympique 1456, Leinster 1915 — 459 points, favouring Leinster
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique0–1–2Leinster3 meetings, 2015 to 2017 · Leinster by 20.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-01-20 | Castres Olympique 24–24 Leinster | European Champions Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2016-10-15 | Leinster 33–15 Castres Olympique | European Champions Cup | Laya Arena |
| 2015-01-17 | Leinster 50–8 Castres Olympique | European Champions Cup | Laya Arena |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.