Castres Olympique vs Leinster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Castres Olympique 31.6%draw 2.5%65.9% LeinsterLeinster 79.2%draw 2.5%18.3% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 23.9%draw 2.5%73.6% LeinsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 25 Leinster and 13 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 4 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Castres Olympique, negative favours Leinster.
Castres Olympique 1485, Leinster 1912 — 427 points, favouring Leinster
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique0–1–2Leinster3 meetings, 2015 to 2017 · Leinster by 20.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-01-20 | Castres Olympique 24–24 Leinster | European Champions Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2016-10-15 | Leinster 33–15 Castres Olympique | European Champions Cup | Laya Arena |
| 2015-01-17 | Leinster 50–8 Castres Olympique | European Champions Cup | Laya Arena |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.