Castres Olympique vs Lyon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Castres Olympique 69.6%draw 2.5%27.9% LyonLyon 70.8%draw 2.5%26.7% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 48.4%draw 2.5%49.1% LyonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Castres Olympique v Lyon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Lyon and 22 Castres Olympique, half of them between 2 Lyon and 13 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 5 Castres Olympique.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Castres Olympique winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Castres Olympique, a bar to the left helps Lyon.
Castres Olympique 1456, Lyon 1487 — 31 points, favouring Lyon
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique13–0–7Lyon20 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Castres Olympique by 2.0 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Castres Olympique by 0.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Lyon 26–21 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2025-12-27 | Castres Olympique 36–22 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2025-02-22 | Castres Olympique 30–25 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2024-09-28 | Lyon 40–38 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2024-03-09 | Lyon 34–19 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 20. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.