Castres Olympique vs Lyon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Castres Olympique 59.8%draw 2.5%37.7% LyonLyon 51.6%draw 2.5%45.9% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 52.9%draw 2.5%44.6% LyonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Lyon and 24 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 3 Castres Olympique.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Castres Olympique, negative favours Lyon.
Castres Olympique 1485, Lyon 1429 — 56 points, favouring Castres Olympique
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique13–0–7Lyon20 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Castres Olympique by 2.0 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Castres Olympique by 0.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Lyon 26–21 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2025-12-27 | Castres Olympique 36–22 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2025-02-22 | Castres Olympique 30–25 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2024-09-28 | Lyon 40–38 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2024-03-09 | Lyon 34–19 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 20. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.