Castres Olympique vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Castres Olympique 33.8%draw 2.5%63.7% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 78.0%draw 2.5%19.5% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 25.6%draw 2.5%71.9% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Montpellier Herault and 10 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 2 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Castres Olympique, negative favours Montpellier Herault.
Castres Olympique 1485, Montpellier Herault 1882 — 397 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique13–0–13Montpellier Herault26 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · level on average margin
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Castres Olympique by 0.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Castres Olympique 33–36 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2025-12-20 | Montpellier Herault 33–31 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2025-03-01 | Montpellier Herault 21–17 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Raoul-Barriere |
| 2024-11-02 | Castres Olympique 30–26 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2024-05-11 | Castres Olympique 27–26 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 26. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.