Castres Olympique vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Montpellier Herault host Castres Olympique on Saturday 31 October at Septeo Stadium, Montpellier, so Montpellier Herault are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Castres Olympique 39.7%draw 2.5%57.8% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 86.3%draw 2.5%11.2% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 20.9%draw 2.5%76.6% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Montpellier Herault v Castres Olympique, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Montpellier Herault wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Castres Olympique and 36 Montpellier Herault, half of them between 4 Montpellier Herault and 24 Montpellier Herault, with the middle run at 11 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-14 on a tight afternoon and 36-25 on an open one.
Why Montpellier Herault are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Montpellier Herault winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Montpellier Herault, a bar to the left helps Castres Olympique.
Montpellier Herault 1972, Castres Olympique 1456 — 516 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Montpellier Herault are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique13–0–13Montpellier Herault26 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · level on average margin
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Castres Olympique by 0.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Castres Olympique 33–36 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2025-12-20 | Montpellier Herault 33–31 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2025-03-01 | Montpellier Herault 21–17 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Raoul-Barriere |
| 2024-11-02 | Castres Olympique 30–26 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2024-05-11 | Castres Olympique 27–26 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 26. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.