Castres Olympique vs Munster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Castres Olympique 47.7%draw 2.5%49.8% MunsterMunster 72.7%draw 2.5%24.8% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 36.0%draw 2.5%61.5% MunsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Munster and 16 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-31 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Castres Olympique, negative favours Munster.
Castres Olympique 1485, Munster 1670 — 186 points, favouring Munster
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique3–1–4Munster8 meetings, 2017 to 2026 · Munster by 9.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Munster 29–31 Castres Olympique | European Champions Cup | Thomond Park |
| 2024-12-13 | Castres Olympique 16–14 Munster | European Champions Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2022-01-14 | Castres Olympique 13–16 Munster | European Champions Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2021-12-18 | Munster 19–13 Castres Olympique | European Champions Cup | Thomond Park |
| 2018-12-15 | Castres Olympique 13–12 Munster | European Champions Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.