Castres Olympique vs Munster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Castres Olympique 50.3%draw 2.5%47.2% MunsterMunster 81.9%draw 2.5%15.6% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 32.2%draw 2.5%65.3% MunsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Castres Olympique v Munster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Munster and 17 Castres Olympique, half of them between 7 Munster and 8 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 1 Castres Olympique.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 32-31 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Castres Olympique winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Castres Olympique, a bar to the left helps Munster.
Castres Olympique 1456, Munster 1728 — 272 points, favouring Munster
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique3–1–4Munster8 meetings, 2017 to 2026 · Munster by 9.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Munster 29–31 Castres Olympique | European Champions Cup | Thomond Park |
| 2024-12-13 | Castres Olympique 16–14 Munster | European Champions Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2022-01-14 | Castres Olympique 13–16 Munster | European Champions Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2021-12-18 | Munster 19–13 Castres Olympique | European Champions Cup | Thomond Park |
| 2018-12-15 | Castres Olympique 13–12 Munster | European Champions Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.