Castres Olympique vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Castres Olympique 32.7%draw 2.5%64.8% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 82.6%draw 2.5%14.9% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 21.5%draw 2.5%76.0% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Castres Olympique v Northampton Saints, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 21 Northampton Saints and 14 Castres Olympique, half of them between 12 Northampton Saints and 4 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 4 Northampton Saints.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-19 on a tight afternoon and 35-31 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Castres Olympique winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Castres Olympique, a bar to the left helps Northampton Saints.
Castres Olympique 1456, Northampton Saints 1957 — 501 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique1–0–4Northampton Saints5 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Northampton Saints by 9.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Northampton Saints 49–41 Castres Olympique | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2025-04-12 | Northampton Saints 51–16 Castres Olympique | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2024-12-07 | Northampton Saints 38–8 Castres Olympique | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2017-01-14 | Northampton Saints 28–21 Castres Olympique | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2016-10-22 | Castres Olympique 41–7 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.