Castres Olympique vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Castres Olympique 31.0%draw 2.5%66.5% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 79.6%draw 2.5%17.9% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 23.4%draw 2.5%74.1% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Northampton Saints and 10 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 3 Northampton Saints.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-30 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Castres Olympique, negative favours Northampton Saints.
Castres Olympique 1485, Northampton Saints 1918 — 433 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique1–0–4Northampton Saints5 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Northampton Saints by 9.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Northampton Saints 49–41 Castres Olympique | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2025-04-12 | Northampton Saints 51–16 Castres Olympique | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2024-12-07 | Northampton Saints 38–8 Castres Olympique | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2017-01-14 | Northampton Saints 28–21 Castres Olympique | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2016-10-22 | Castres Olympique 41–7 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.