Castres Olympique vs Pau
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Castres Olympique 47.1%draw 2.5%50.4% PauPau 68.3%draw 2.5%29.2% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 37.9%draw 2.5%59.6% PauEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Pau and 15 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 1 Pau.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Castres Olympique, negative favours Pau.
Castres Olympique 1485, Pau 1640 — 155 points, favouring Pau
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique14–0–9Pau23 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Castres Olympique by 1.3 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Pau by 2.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Pau 27–15 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2025-09-06 | Castres Olympique 15–17 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2025-01-04 | Castres Olympique 24–19 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2024-10-12 | Pau 33–26 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2024-02-03 | Pau 33–44 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.