Castres Olympique vs Pau
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Castres Olympique 48.4%draw 2.5%49.1% PauPau 83.2%draw 2.5%14.3% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 28.1%draw 2.5%69.4% PauEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Castres Olympique v Pau, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 25 Pau and 13 Castres Olympique, half of them between 12 Pau and 6 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 1 Pau.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Castres Olympique winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Castres Olympique, a bar to the left helps Pau.
Castres Olympique 1456, Pau 1818 — 362 points, favouring Pau
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Pau are under 50% and still the likelier winner: Castres Olympique are on 48.4%, and a draw takes the other 2.5%.
Head to head
Castres Olympique15–0–10Pau25 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Castres Olympique by 2.1 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Pau by 3.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Pau 35–26 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2026-05-09 | Pau 27–15 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2025-09-06 | Castres Olympique 15–17 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2025-01-04 | Castres Olympique 24–19 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2024-10-12 | Pau 33–26 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 25. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.