Castres Olympique vs Perpignan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Castres Olympique 68.4%draw 2.5%29.1% PerpignanCastres Olympique 60.7%draw 2.5%36.8% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Perpignan and 30 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 6 Castres Olympique.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-27 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Castres Olympique, negative favours Perpignan.
Castres Olympique 1485, Perpignan 1346 — 139 points, favouring Castres Olympique
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique7–1–3Perpignan11 meetings, 2018 to 2026 · Castres Olympique by 4.0 on average
Last 10: 6–1–3 · Castres Olympique by 4.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Perpignan 29–27 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2025-11-29 | Castres Olympique 23–7 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2025-02-15 | Perpignan 20–20 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2024-09-21 | Castres Olympique 27–12 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2024-03-30 | Perpignan 43–12 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 11. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.