Castres Olympique vs Perpignan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Castres Olympique 76.7%draw 2.5%20.8% PerpignanPerpignan 66.8%draw 2.5%30.7% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 54.9%draw 2.5%42.6% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Castres Olympique v Perpignan, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Perpignan and 27 Castres Olympique, half of them between 1 Castres Olympique and 16 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 7 Castres Olympique.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 67 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-15 on a tight afternoon and 32-25 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Castres Olympique winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Castres Olympique, a bar to the left helps Perpignan.
Castres Olympique 1456, Perpignan 1424 — 33 points, favouring Castres Olympique
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique7–1–5Perpignan13 meetings, 2018 to 2026 · Castres Olympique by 2.0 on average
Last 10: 4–1–5 · Castres Olympique by 0.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Perpignan 43–29 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2026-05-30 | Perpignan 29–27 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2025-11-29 | Castres Olympique 23–7 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2025-02-15 | Perpignan 20–20 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2024-09-21 | Castres Olympique 27–12 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 13. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.