Castres Olympique vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Castres Olympique 47.9%draw 2.5%49.6% Racing 92Racing 92 69.7%draw 2.5%27.8% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 36.9%draw 2.5%60.6% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 Racing 92 and 15 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-31 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Castres Olympique, negative favours Racing 92.
Castres Olympique 1485, Racing 92 1707 — 223 points, favouring Racing 92
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique11–0–14Racing 9225 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Racing 92 by 4.5 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Racing 92 by 3.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Racing 92 52–21 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2025-10-04 | Castres Olympique 20–16 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2025-01-25 | Racing 92 20–27 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2024-09-07 | Castres Olympique 31–28 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2024-03-23 | Castres Olympique 21–23 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 25. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.