Castres Olympique vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Castres Olympique host Racing 92 on Saturday 7 November at Stade Pierre Fabre, Castres, so Castres Olympique are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Castres Olympique 63.0%draw 2.5%34.5% Racing 92Racing 92 77.0%draw 2.5%20.5% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 40.5%draw 2.5%57.0% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Castres Olympique v Racing 92, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Racing 92 and 22 Castres Olympique, half of them between 5 Racing 92 and 12 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 3 Castres Olympique.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Castres Olympique winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Castres Olympique, a bar to the left helps Racing 92.
Castres Olympique 1456, Racing 92 1632 — 176 points, favouring Racing 92
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique11–1–14Racing 9226 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Racing 92 by 4.3 on average
Last 10: 4–1–5 · Racing 92 by 2.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Racing 92 52–21 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2025-10-04 | Castres Olympique 20–16 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2025-01-25 | Racing 92 20–27 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2024-09-07 | Castres Olympique 31–28 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2024-03-23 | Castres Olympique 21–23 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 26. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.