Castres Olympique vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Castres Olympique 39.7%draw 2.5%57.8% SaracensSaracens 74.9%draw 2.5%22.6% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 30.0%draw 2.5%67.5% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Saracens and 14 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 2 Saracens.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Castres Olympique, negative favours Saracens.
Castres Olympique 1485, Saracens 1802 — 317 points, favouring Saracens
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique1–0–0Saracens1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Castres Olympique by 8.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | Saracens 24–32 Castres Olympique | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.