Castres Olympique vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Castres Olympique 39.5%draw 2.5%58.0% SaracensSaracens 80.3%draw 2.5%17.2% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 25.8%draw 2.5%71.7% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Castres Olympique v Saracens, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Saracens and 15 Castres Olympique, half of them between 10 Saracens and 6 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 2 Saracens.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-20 on a tight afternoon and 34-32 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Castres Olympique winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Castres Olympique, a bar to the left helps Saracens.
Castres Olympique 1456, Saracens 1861 — 405 points, favouring Saracens
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique1–0–0Saracens1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Castres Olympique by 8.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | Saracens 24–32 Castres Olympique | European Champions Cup | StoneX Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.