Castres Olympique vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Castres Olympique host Stade Francais Paris on Saturday 24 October at Stade Pierre Fabre, Castres, so Castres Olympique are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Castres Olympique 55.6%draw 2.5%41.9% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 82.5%draw 2.5%15.0% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 33.5%draw 2.5%64.0% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Castres Olympique v Stade Francais Paris, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Stade Francais Paris and 20 Castres Olympique, half of them between 6 Stade Francais Paris and 10 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 2 Castres Olympique.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Castres Olympique winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Castres Olympique, a bar to the left helps Stade Francais Paris.
Castres Olympique 1456, Stade Francais Paris 1731 — 275 points, favouring Stade Francais Paris
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique9–0–13Stade Francais Paris22 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Stade Francais Paris by 2.4 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Stade Francais Paris by 4.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-03 | Stade Francais Paris 33–15 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2025-10-18 | Castres Olympique 29–24 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2025-06-07 | Stade Francais Paris 21–10 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2024-10-19 | Castres Olympique 35–13 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2024-06-01 | Castres Olympique 27–18 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.