Castres Olympique vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Castres Olympique 34.8%draw 2.5%62.7% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 77.7%draw 2.5%19.8% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 26.2%draw 2.5%71.3% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Stade Toulousain and 11 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 2 Stade Toulousain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Castres Olympique, negative favours Stade Toulousain.
Castres Olympique 1485, Stade Toulousain 1863 — 379 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique12–1–10Stade Toulousain23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Stade Toulousain by 4.5 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Stade Toulousain by 10.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Castres Olympique 25–42 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2025-09-27 | Stade Toulousain 59–12 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2025-04-26 | Stade Toulousain 52–6 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 2024-10-05 | Castres Olympique 28–23 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2024-03-02 | Stade Toulousain 33–6 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.