Castres Olympique vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Castres Olympique 38.6%draw 2.5%58.9% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 86.1%draw 2.5%11.4% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 19.9%draw 2.5%77.6% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Castres Olympique v Stade Toulousain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 Stade Toulousain and 15 Castres Olympique, half of them between 11 Stade Toulousain and 5 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 3 Stade Toulousain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-30 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Castres Olympique winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Castres Olympique, a bar to the left helps Stade Toulousain.
Castres Olympique 1456, Stade Toulousain 1992 — 536 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique12–1–11Stade Toulousain24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Stade Toulousain by 4.3 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Stade Toulousain by 11.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Castres Olympique 7–8 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2026-04-18 | Castres Olympique 25–42 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2025-09-27 | Stade Toulousain 59–12 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2025-04-26 | Stade Toulousain 52–6 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 2024-10-05 | Castres Olympique 28–23 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.