Castres Olympique vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Castres Olympique 57.5%draw 2.5%40.0% ToulonToulon 81.3%draw 2.5%16.2% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 35.3%draw 2.5%62.2% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Castres Olympique v Toulon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Toulon and 24 Castres Olympique, half of them between 5 Toulon and 13 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 3 Castres Olympique.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Castres Olympique winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Castres Olympique, a bar to the left helps Toulon.
Castres Olympique 1456, Toulon 1663 — 207 points, favouring Toulon
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique11–0–14Toulon25 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Toulon by 3.7 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Toulon by 2.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Castres Olympique 29–27 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2026-06-06 | Castres Olympique 38–21 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2025-09-13 | Toulon 16–12 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2025-06-14 | Toulon 52–23 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2025-03-29 | Castres Olympique 28–26 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 25. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.