Castres Olympique vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Castres Olympique 62.7%draw 2.5%34.8% ToulonToulon 54.8%draw 2.5%42.7% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 52.7%draw 2.5%44.8% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Toulon and 21 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 4 Castres Olympique.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Castres Olympique, negative favours Toulon.
Castres Olympique 1485, Toulon 1435 — 50 points, favouring Castres Olympique
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique10–1–14Toulon25 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Toulon by 3.8 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Toulon by 1.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Castres Olympique 38–21 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2025-09-13 | Toulon 16–12 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2025-06-14 | Toulon 52–23 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2025-03-29 | Castres Olympique 28–26 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2024-09-14 | Toulon 30–28 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 25. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.