Castres Olympique vs US Montauban
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Castres Olympique 88.5%draw 2.5%9.0% US MontaubanCastres Olympique 83.9%draw 2.5%13.6% US MontaubanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 40 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 14 Castres Olympique.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 29-15 on a tight afternoon and 40-26 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Castres Olympique, negative favours US Montauban.
Castres Olympique 1485, US Montauban 824 — 660 points, favouring Castres Olympique
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique2–0–0US Montauban2 meetings, 2025 to 2026 · Castres Olympique by 18.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Castres Olympique 49–17 US Montauban | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2025-10-11 | US Montauban 28–32 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Sapiac |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.