Castres Olympique vs Vannes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Castres Olympique 84.0%draw 2.5%13.5% VannesVannes 56.2%draw 2.5%41.3% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 66.3%draw 2.5%31.2% VannesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Castres Olympique v Vannes, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Castres Olympique wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Vannes and 33 Castres Olympique, half of them between 2 Castres Olympique and 21 Castres Olympique, with the middle run at 10 Castres Olympique.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-14 on a tight afternoon and 35-25 on an open one.
Why Castres Olympique are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Castres Olympique winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Castres Olympique, a bar to the left helps Vannes.
Castres Olympique 1456, Vannes 1280 — 176 points, favouring Castres Olympique
Castres Olympique are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Castres Olympique2–0–1Vannes3 meetings, 2024 to 2026 · Castres Olympique by 7.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Castres Olympique 29–20 Vannes | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2025-04-19 | Castres Olympique 32–13 Vannes | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2024-10-26 | Vannes 34–28 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade de la Rabine |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.