Cheetahs vs Chiefs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cheetahs 19.3%draw 2.5%78.2% ChiefsChiefs 81.8%draw 2.5%15.7% CheetahsCheetahs 18.0%draw 2.5%79.5% ChiefsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cheetahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 28 Chiefs and 8 Cheetahs, with the middle run at 8 Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-16 on a tight afternoon and 36-28 on an open one.
Why Cheetahs are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cheetahs, negative favours Chiefs.
Cheetahs 1260, Chiefs 1775 — 516 points, favouring Chiefs
Cheetahs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cheetahs0–0–2Chiefs2 meetings, 2015 to 2017 · Chiefs by 12.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-15 | Cheetahs 27–41 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Toyota Stadium |
| 2015-03-28 | Chiefs 37–27 Cheetahs | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.