Cheetahs vs Clermont Auvergne
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cheetahs 21.0%draw 2.5%76.5% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 83.0%draw 2.5%14.5% CheetahsCheetahs 17.4%draw 2.5%80.1% Clermont AuvergneEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cheetahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 27 Clermont Auvergne and 11 Cheetahs, with the middle run at 7 Clermont Auvergne.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-17 on a tight afternoon and 36-29 on an open one.
Why Cheetahs are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cheetahs, negative favours Clermont Auvergne.
Cheetahs 1260, Clermont Auvergne 1729 — 469 points, favouring Clermont Auvergne
Cheetahs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cheetahs0–0–1Clermont Auvergne1 meeting, 2024 to 2024 · Clermont Auvergne by 5.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-06 | Clermont Auvergne 27–22 Cheetahs | European Challenge Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.