Cheetahs vs Edinburgh
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cheetahs 37.0%draw 2.5%60.5% EdinburghEdinburgh 83.1%draw 2.5%14.4% CheetahsCheetahs 24.8%draw 2.5%72.7% EdinburghEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cheetahs v Edinburgh, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cheetahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 23 Edinburgh and 13 Cheetahs, half of them between 12 Edinburgh and 5 Cheetahs, with the middle run at 3 Edinburgh.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Cheetahs are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cheetahs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cheetahs, a bar to the left helps Edinburgh.
Cheetahs 1270, Edinburgh 1528 — 258 points, favouring Edinburgh
Cheetahs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cheetahs1–0–1Edinburgh2 meetings, 2017 to 2018 · Cheetahs by 2.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-10-05 | Edinburgh 37–21 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2017-11-24 | Cheetahs 33–13 Edinburgh | United Rugby Championship | Toyota Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.