Cheetahs vs Exeter Chiefs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cheetahs 24.7%draw 2.5%72.8% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 84.8%draw 2.5%12.7% CheetahsCheetahs 18.4%draw 2.5%79.1% Exeter ChiefsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cheetahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 27 Exeter Chiefs and 11 Cheetahs, with the middle run at 6 Exeter Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-17 on a tight afternoon and 34-28 on an open one.
Why Cheetahs are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cheetahs, negative favours Exeter Chiefs.
Cheetahs 1260, Exeter Chiefs 1754 — 495 points, favouring Exeter Chiefs
Cheetahs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cheetahs0–0–1Exeter Chiefs1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Exeter Chiefs by 30.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | Exeter Chiefs 42–12 Cheetahs | European Challenge Cup | Sandy Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.