Cheetahs vs Glasgow Warriors
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cheetahs 23.1%draw 2.5%74.4% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 88.6%draw 2.5%8.9% CheetahsCheetahs 15.6%draw 2.5%81.9% Glasgow WarriorsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cheetahs v Glasgow Warriors, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cheetahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 34 Glasgow Warriors and 5 Cheetahs, half of them between 21 Glasgow Warriors and 1 Glasgow Warriors, with the middle run at 9 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-17 on a tight afternoon and 37-28 on an open one.
Why Cheetahs are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cheetahs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cheetahs, a bar to the left helps Glasgow Warriors.
Cheetahs 1270, Glasgow Warriors 1949 — 680 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Cheetahs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cheetahs1–0–4Glasgow Warriors5 meetings, 2017 to 2019 · Glasgow Warriors by 5.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-27 | Cheetahs 48–14 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Toyota Stadium |
| 2019-03-23 | Glasgow Warriors 35–17 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2018-09-15 | Cheetahs 24–52 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Toyota Stadium |
| 2018-02-16 | Glasgow Warriors 37–23 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2017-10-06 | Cheetahs 26–29 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Toyota Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.