Cheetahs vs Glasgow Warriors
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cheetahs 21.7%draw 2.5%75.8% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 88.4%draw 2.5%9.1% CheetahsCheetahs 15.1%draw 2.5%82.4% Glasgow WarriorsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cheetahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 30 Glasgow Warriors and 8 Cheetahs, with the middle run at 8 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-17 on a tight afternoon and 36-28 on an open one.
Why Cheetahs are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cheetahs, negative favours Glasgow Warriors.
Cheetahs 1260, Glasgow Warriors 1792 — 532 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Cheetahs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cheetahs1–0–4Glasgow Warriors5 meetings, 2017 to 2019 · Glasgow Warriors by 5.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-27 | Cheetahs 48–14 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Toyota Stadium |
| 2019-03-23 | Glasgow Warriors 35–17 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2018-09-15 | Cheetahs 24–52 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Toyota Stadium |
| 2018-02-16 | Glasgow Warriors 37–23 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2017-10-06 | Cheetahs 26–29 Glasgow Warriors | United Rugby Championship | Toyota Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.