Cheetahs vs Hurricanes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cheetahs 15.9%draw 2.5%81.6% HurricanesHurricanes 89.8%draw 2.5%7.7% CheetahsCheetahs 11.6%draw 2.5%85.9% HurricanesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cheetahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 35 Hurricanes and 2 Cheetahs, with the middle run at 10 Hurricanes.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-16 on a tight afternoon and 37-27 on an open one.
Why Cheetahs are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cheetahs, negative favours Hurricanes.
Cheetahs 1260, Hurricanes 1864 — 604 points, favouring Hurricanes
Cheetahs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cheetahs0–0–1Hurricanes1 meeting, 2017 to 2017 · Hurricanes by 54.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-05-20 | Hurricanes 61–7 Cheetahs | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.