Cheetahs vs Leinster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cheetahs 17.1%draw 2.5%80.4% LeinsterLeinster 87.7%draw 2.5%9.8% CheetahsCheetahs 13.3%draw 2.5%84.2% LeinsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cheetahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 37 Leinster and 1 Cheetahs, with the middle run at 12 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-15 on a tight afternoon and 39-27 on an open one.
Why Cheetahs are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cheetahs, negative favours Leinster.
Cheetahs 1260, Leinster 1912 — 652 points, favouring Leinster
Cheetahs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cheetahs1–0–2Leinster3 meetings, 2017 to 2020 · Leinster by 5.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-15 | Leinster 36–12 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Laya Arena |
| 2019-03-01 | Leinster 19–7 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Laya Arena |
| 2017-09-22 | Cheetahs 38–19 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Toyota Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.