Cheetahs vs Leinster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cheetahs 23.8%draw 2.5%73.7% LeinsterLeinster 89.6%draw 2.5%7.9% CheetahsCheetahs 15.3%draw 2.5%82.2% LeinsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cheetahs v Leinster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cheetahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 35 Leinster and 4 Cheetahs, half of them between 21 Leinster and level, with the middle run at 9 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-16 on a tight afternoon and 36-27 on an open one.
Why Cheetahs are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cheetahs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cheetahs, a bar to the left helps Leinster.
Cheetahs 1270, Leinster 1915 — 645 points, favouring Leinster
Cheetahs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cheetahs1–0–2Leinster3 meetings, 2017 to 2020 · Leinster by 5.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-15 | Leinster 36–12 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Laya Arena |
| 2019-03-01 | Leinster 19–7 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Laya Arena |
| 2017-09-22 | Cheetahs 38–19 Leinster | United Rugby Championship | Toyota Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.