Cheetahs vs Lions
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cheetahs 35.3%draw 2.5%62.2% LionsLions 85.2%draw 2.5%12.3% CheetahsCheetahs 23.0%draw 2.5%74.5% LionsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cheetahs v Lions, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cheetahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 23 Lions and 14 Cheetahs, half of them between 12 Lions and 5 Cheetahs, with the middle run at 3 Lions.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-30 on an open one.
Why Cheetahs are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cheetahs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cheetahs, a bar to the left helps Lions.
Cheetahs 1270, Lions 1664 — 395 points, favouring Lions
Cheetahs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cheetahs0–0–4Lions4 meetings, 2015 to 2017 · Lions by 12.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-02-25 | Cheetahs 25–28 Lions | Super Rugby | Toyota Stadium |
| 2016-03-19 | Lions 39–22 Cheetahs | Super Rugby | Ellis Park |
| 2015-05-23 | Cheetahs 17–40 Lions | Super Rugby | Toyota Stadium |
| 2015-04-25 | Lions 34–29 Cheetahs | Super Rugby | Ellis Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.