Cheetahs vs Lions
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cheetahs 26.7%draw 2.5%70.8% LionsLions 81.3%draw 2.5%16.2% CheetahsCheetahs 21.1%draw 2.5%76.4% LionsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cheetahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Lions and 10 Cheetahs, with the middle run at 4 Lions.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-19 on a tight afternoon and 34-30 on an open one.
Why Cheetahs are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cheetahs, negative favours Lions.
Cheetahs 1260, Lions 1678 — 419 points, favouring Lions
Cheetahs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cheetahs0–0–4Lions4 meetings, 2015 to 2017 · Lions by 12.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-02-25 | Cheetahs 25–28 Lions | Super Rugby | Toyota Stadium |
| 2016-03-19 | Lions 39–22 Cheetahs | Super Rugby | Ellis Park |
| 2015-05-23 | Cheetahs 17–40 Lions | Super Rugby | Toyota Stadium |
| 2015-04-25 | Lions 34–29 Cheetahs | Super Rugby | Ellis Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.