Cheetahs vs Lyon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cheetahs 41.7%draw 2.5%55.8% LyonLyon 81.1%draw 2.5%16.4% CheetahsCheetahs 28.4%draw 2.5%69.1% LyonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cheetahs v Lyon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cheetahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 25 Lyon and 12 Cheetahs, half of them between 13 Lyon and 5 Cheetahs, with the middle run at 2 Lyon.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Cheetahs are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cheetahs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cheetahs, a bar to the left helps Lyon.
Cheetahs 1270, Lyon 1487 — 218 points, favouring Lyon
Cheetahs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cheetahs0–0–1Lyon1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Lyon by 47.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Lyon 68–21 Cheetahs | European Challenge Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.