Cheetahs vs Munster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Cheetahs 26.7%draw 2.5%70.8% MunsterMunster 81.8%draw 2.5%15.7% CheetahsCheetahs 20.9%draw 2.5%76.6% MunsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cheetahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 23 Munster and 14 Cheetahs, with the middle run at 5 Munster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-18 on a tight afternoon and 35-30 on an open one.
Why Cheetahs are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Cheetahs, negative favours Munster.
Cheetahs 1260, Munster 1670 — 411 points, favouring Munster
Cheetahs are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cheetahs1–0–4Munster5 meetings, 2017 to 2019 · Munster by 10.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-11 | Cheetahs 40–16 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Toyota Stadium |
| 2018-11-04 | Cheetahs 26–30 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Toyota Stadium |
| 2018-09-01 | Munster 38–0 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
| 2018-04-13 | Cheetahs 17–19 Munster | United Rugby Championship | Toyota Stadium |
| 2017-09-09 | Munster 51–18 Cheetahs | United Rugby Championship | Thomond Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.