Cheetahs vs Pau
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Cheetahs 30.2%draw 2.5%67.3% PauPau 84.6%draw 2.5%12.9% CheetahsCheetahs 19.6%draw 2.5%77.9% PauEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Cheetahs v Pau, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Cheetahs wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 26 Pau and 11 Cheetahs, half of them between 15 Pau and 2 Cheetahs, with the middle run at 5 Pau.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-18 on a tight afternoon and 35-30 on an open one.
Why Cheetahs are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Cheetahs winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Cheetahs, a bar to the left helps Pau.
Cheetahs 1270, Pau 1818 — 549 points, favouring Pau
Cheetahs are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Cheetahs2–0–1Pau3 meetings, 2022 to 2024 · Pau by 1.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-14 | Cheetahs 20–33 Pau | European Challenge Cup | National Rugby Centre Amsterdam |
| 2023-01-22 | Cheetahs 9–6 Pau | European Challenge Cup | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2022-12-10 | Pau 16–21 Cheetahs | European Challenge Cup | Stade du Hameau |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.